LiveThe pot count

Our tickets, by the odds

Each bar is one nominee's chance of winning the nomination. The colored pieces inside are our domains: each sized by that exact ticket's odds. Empty space is running mates we don't hold.

Pale bar: chance this person is the nomineeOur ticket, priced by KalshiOur ticket, estimatedHover any segment for the math

Our likeliest tickets on Kalshi

Chart widgets by pmxt · change since yesterday

Coverage: who holds the likeliest tickets

OursSomeone else'sOpen to registerRegistered by someone in the last yearDarker = likelier

Checking who holds each pairing…

Within a party only one ticket can win, so our tickets' chances add up. Estimates assume the nominee and running-mate races are independent; a nominee's real pick depends on who they are, so treat estimates as rough.